Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Reactions To The Justin Maxwell For Kyle Smith Trade

Dave Cameron thinks it was an odd move for the Royals, who likely won't make the playoffs:
However, to get Maxwell, the Royals gave up Kyle Smith, who Marc Hulet rated as their #10 prospect heading into the season. Smith has been excellent in high-A Wilmington this year, and is probably not far away from being ready for Double-A. He’s undersized, but the stuff and the results are there, and the Astros are clearly not shy about taking chances on short dudes who can play.
Smith isn’t any kind of elite prospect and might turn out to be nothing in the long run, but this seems like another example of the Royals paying an above market cost for a useful player that won’t actually help them enough for his presence to matter much. With or without Maxwell, the Royals aren’t going to the postseason this year, so at best, he pushes them a little closer to .500. Meanwhile, similar players are going to be outrighted off 40-man rosters this winter, and so while Maxwell is under team control for several more years, the future value he will provide could have been replicated without actually giving up a prospect at the deadline.
It’s not a backbreaker, and perhaps Maxwell will turn into more of a regular contributor than the short half of a job share, but this still seems like a bit of an odd maneuver for the Royals. This is the kind of trade that a contender makes to get their roster ready for postseason play. The Royals would like to be the team making those kinds of moves, but making those kinds of moves doesn’t make you a contender.

John Sickels loves the deal for Houston:
My initial take on this was that the Astros got a great return for Maxwell, but I like Smith more than most analysts do. I've seen him called a Grade C prospect by other reputable sources, and that's apparently the same way that the Royals viewed him. You don't swap a top pitching prospect for a 29-year-old outfielder with a career .222 average and a history of injury.
It is also true that pitchers with Smith's profile often fail to carry forward at the highest levels, so from the Royals point-of-view, they were trading a fungible middling prospect for a guy who can help in the outfield next year. To top it off, I actually like Justin Maxwell and it wouldn't surprise me to see him be a (really) late bloomer. However, it would seem to me that a guy like Maxwell should be acquirable without having to give up a prospect like Smith,who has performed well at a young age.

Royal Revival thinks that Maxwell's platoon splits will make him useful piece in Kansas City's outfield mix:
This seems like a pretty good divide. Again this exercise was purely to get a feel for how the playing time could be divided up. Obviously, if the Royals don't play Gordon everyday there could be more playing time for others. This might even help to optimize the offense. I just don't expect Gordon's playing time to dip due to this acquisition and that's probably a good thing. My biggest takeaway is that we all have automatically assumed that Lough is the obvious choice to see a dip in playing time, but this might not be the best case scenario.

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