Embrace The Risk: Analyzing The Jose Veras For Danryn Vasquez Trade

The Astros announced yesterday that they traded closer Jose Veras for OF prospect Danry Vasquez and a PTBNL.  It's a deal that fits the needs and present situations of both clubs. 

Veras Shores Up A Weakness For Detroit

The Tigers get a potential late-inning relief option to mix and match with Benoit and Smyly.  Even if Veras doesn't represent a upgrade over their current closer, he should be able to replace high-leverage innings being pitched by relievers lower in the totem pole.  They also got to upgrade their bullpen without giving up top prospects, Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia.  There were rumors that one of those prospects might be shipped out for a "Proven Closer."  That would have been ridiculous.  As we'll get into later, Vasquez is a good prospect, but he's in low-A, comes with a lot of risk, and plays a position where Detroit is relatively well-stocked in the minors.  In a decade, Vasquez could make this deal look awful for them--but most likely he doesn't make them live regret it.  Detroit is a playoff team in the middle of their window for contention with a 84 year old owner.  It makes sense for them to address their most glaring need, particularly by sending off a high risk prospect who is far way from the majors.

Risk Cuts Both Ways For The Astros

For the Astros, risk is a good thing.  If Vasquez was a sure-thing can't-miss prospect, he wouldn't be available for Jose Veras.  The Astros were able to pick Veras off of the dust bin, clean him up, and trade him in for something that better fits their situation.  Vasquez isn't a sure thing, but he's a high variance prospect who has the potential to be 1st division corner outfield. The Astros were smart to embrace that kind of risk.

Veras was non-tendered by the Brewers over the offseason and was picked up by the Astros on a $2 million dollar one-year deal with a team option.  He turned out to be a productive pitcher, but was being wasted on a team that is at least a year and a half away from contending.  So after essentially showcasing Veras for half a season, they flipped him for Vasquez and a PTBNL, who at least have chances to contribute to the next Astros playoff run.

It was a masterful stroke by Luhnow and kind of move that can speed up the rebuilding process.  It also shows how teams can creatively add prospects to their system.  With the new CBA, teams' hands are tied in regarding to how much they can allocate to amateur acquisitions.  Just a few years ago,  if the Astros wanted to cut major league playroll and commit it all to the draft and international free agency, there was no rule stopping them.  They could have theoretically signed every high school draft prospect that fell due to signability.   Teams are now regulated by MLB on how much they can spend in amateur acquisitions, but by picking up players out of free agency, showcasing them, and then selling them for prospects, a rebuilding team can add to their system through a non-traditional way.

Vasquez has tools, pedigree, and fits an area of need in the Astros organization.  Outside of Domingo Santana and, perhaps, Robbie Grossman, there aren't many corner outfielders in the system that are true prospects.

He also has a chance--even if it is a small one--to be a middle-of-the-order hitter.  Of course, there are countless tooled up prospects that never make it.  The hope I have is that unlike the Telvin Nashs, Bobby Borcherings, and Ariel Ovandos of the world, Vasquez has shown an outstanding contact rate throughout his brief career.  Currently his strikeout per PA rate is 13.3% at low-A as a 19 year old.  What good is an ability to hit the ball 500 feet if you can't make contact with it?  Vasquez hasn't shown the ability hit the ball 500 feet, but I suspect the chance that he develops power as he enters his 20s is greater than the chance some prospect who strikes out 30% of the time learns how to make contact.

Of course, according to scouting reports, Vasquez is below-average fielder, a below-average runner, and is probably stuck in LF.  If true, that's going to put a lot of pressure on his bat.  But, even with a high risk that Vasquez never pans out, he also has a higher chance than Veras of helping the next winning Astros club.

Scouting Reports and Rankings: Danry Vasquez

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011	17	Tigers	Rk	224	206	56	8	1	2	30	3	7	34	.272	.306	.350	.655
2012	18	2 Teams	A--A	422	388	106	19	2	3	42	6	20	65	.273	.308	.356	.664
2012	18	Connecticut	A-	310	289	90	16	2	2	35	6	13	45	.311	.341	.401	.742
2012	18	West Michigan	A	112	99	16	3	0	1	7	0	7	20	.162	.218	.222	.440
2013	19	West Michigan	A	420	374	105	16	5	5	39	9	31	56	.281	.333	.390	.723
3 Seasons				1066	968	267	43	8	10	111	18	58	155	.276	.317	.368	.685
A (2 seasons)			A	532	473	121	19	5	6	46	9	38	76	.256	.308	.355	.664
Rk (1 season)			Rk	224	206	56	8	1	2	30	3	7	34	.272	.306	.350	.655
A- (1 season)			A-	310	289	90	16	2	2	35	6	13	45	.311	.341	.401	.742

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 7/29/2013.

 

 

 

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo currently ranks Vasquez as the 4th best prospect in the Tiger's system:

 

Scouting Grades* (present/future):Hit: 3/6 | Power: 3/5 | Run: 4/4 | Arm: 4/5 | Field: 4/5 | Overall: 3/5

The Tigers pushed Vasquez to full-season ball aggressively to start the 2012 season, but the Venezuelan outfielder wasn't ready. To his credit, when he was demoted to the New York-Penn League, he produced, finishing seventh in the short-season circuit in batting average. Vasquez is still very raw, but has the chance to keep hitting .300 as he moves up the ladder. He may never have a huge power profile, but he could be the type of hitter who runs into 12-15 homers annually. He's played both outfield corners thus far, but seems to be settling into left field. It's his bat that will move him up the ladder and he's still exceptionally young, playing the entire 2013 season at age 19.

 

 

Vasquez ranked #8 in the Tiger's system by Fangraph's Mark Hulet:

 

Soon to 19, Vasquez began 2012 in A-ball but hit just .162 in 29 games before being sent back down to short-season ball. The outfielder responded well to hit .311 in 72 games but with below-average power for a 6’3” hitter.

The left-handed hitter struggles mightily against southpaws (.197 vs .345 batting average splits) and needs to improve his pitch recognition but he makes decent contact. With an improved approach, he could develop at least average power. A contact I spoke with said Vasquez just needs to learn himself and what it takes to prepare day in and day out, as well as how to compete at a professional level.

“He’s such a young kid and a raw, potential star. Professional baseball is a whole different world – especially for a Latin young man,” he said. “He’s an exciting guy to watch… and you get excited about what he could become.” Vasquez will get another shot at full-season A-ball in 2013 but will likely spend the entire year at that level. He’s probably at least four years from reaching the majors.

Baseball America had Vasquez as the Detroit's 6th best prospect entering the year:

The Tigers had scouted Vasquez in Venezuela since he was 14, so they felt comfortable signing him for $1.2 million when he turned 16 in 2010. A tall, lean, lefthanded batter, he shows excellent control of the barrel, which is evident in his low strikeout rate (13 percent of plate appearances) and .281 average this season at West Michigan. Vasquez doesn’t hit for much power at this stage, and he may need to add mass to his frame and loft to his line-drive swing to meet the home run standard required for everyday work in left field. He grades out as below-average in the speed, range and arm strength departments, so his future rides entirely on the development of his bat.

BlessyouBoys ranked Vasquez as the #3 prospect in the Tiger's system in their midseason update earlier this month:

I had the privilege of seeing Danry Vasquez, while I sat on the opening series of the Whitecaps season. I came away not loving him, to be completely honest. He was bad in the field, lacked some game awareness, and looked a bit lost at the plate. However, it was really cold, and he's 19. I went in with expectations too high, and that was my fault. Therefore, it's easy to take that original series with a grain of salt. After seeing him again, and reevaluating, I came to the conclusion that Vasquez is an extremely intriguing prospect, if nothing else. He's wirey at 6'3 170, and is already relegated to a corner spot in the OF. But oh man, that swing is so, so sweet. He keeps the bat flat through the hitting zone for a really long time, especially for a teenager. Danry has also got a nice approach at the plate, evidenced by the 7.5% walk rate and only a 14% K rate (which is awesome).

Vasquez was given a 1.2 million dollar bonus out of Venezuela 3 years ago. The highest in recent memory for a Tigers prospect. He was good, but not great in the GCL in 2011, and the Tigers decided to be aggressive, as they often are, and assigned him to WMI to start last year as an 18 year old. Vasquez was overmatched, and hit .162/.218/.222, but held his own in the New York Penn college league after a demotion. This year, in his second go around in the Midwest League, Vasquez is sporting a .282/.335/.389 line, good for a .724 OPS. Overall, not huge numbers, but there are plenty of encouraging signs that Vasquez could be an every day player.

Danry is one of the few Tigers prospects with the potential to be a "role 6" player. By that, I mean an above average major leaguer. His slender frame and sweet swing makes it easy for me to project some power when his body fills out, and he has already shown signs of hitting for average. Like I said before, his fielding needs work, but he's got some athletic ability, and consistent reps in left field will only help that cause. At his absolute ceiling, I could see Vasquez hitting around .280 with somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 bombs and 35+ doubles. He's an incredibly long way away from doing that at the major league level, but has got the tools to get there.

John Sickels had Vasquez rated a B- and the #5 prospect in the Tiger's system entering the year:

Like Garcia, he's handicapped by poor plate discipline, but has terrific bat speed and is very young at age 19 in January. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Tigers are about promoting him.