Astros Sign Leo Heras From The Mexican League

Jose de Jesus Ortiz reported earlier today that the Astros signed Leonardo Heras from the Mexican League.  Heras, a 23 year old 5'9 OF, has played the last three years with the Mexico City Diablos of the Mexican League.  While details of the signing have not been announced, because Heras is 23 and has played over three year in an international league, his signing is exempt from MLB's international restrictions.

Heras is a small centerfielder that has shown good contact skills coupled with improving power. He debuted in the Mexican League at 17 for Potros de Tijuana.  In his first full season the next year for Tijuana, he hit 271/.322/.414 while primarily playing second base.  He moved to Reynosa in 2009 and broke out, hitting 330/376/430.  He's played centerfield for Mexico City for the last three years, showing the ability to hit for a high average and moderate power.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	17	Tijuana	MEX	11	22	7	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	.190	.227	.190	.418
2008	18	Tijuana	MEX	78	317	50	76	20	7	2	27	9	21	51	.271	.322	.414	.737
2009	19	Reynosa	MEX	105	486	89	146	21	10	1	46	13	30	57	.330	.376	.430	.806
2010	20	Reynosa	MEX	96	462	58	126	15	8	4	55	11	42	45	.316	.379	.424	.803
2011	21	Mexico	MEX	102	497	100	152	16	8	18	60	25	38	48	.342	.399	.536	.935
2012	22	Mexico	MEX	112	521	111	147	18	8	24	64	17	53	83	.323	.398	.556	.954
2013	23	Mexico	MEX	91	392	81	104	19	9	11	42	14	48	73	.310	.398	.519	.917
7 Seasons				595	2697	496	755	109	50	60	294	89	233	363	.318	.381	.481	.862

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/13/2013.

Ortiz reported that the Astros expect to assign Heras to AA Corpus Christi once the signing is official.  That should be a good challenge for him.  He's had some experience against older players in the Mexican League, and he's not super young for a prospect.  Might as well challenge him and see what you've got.  If nothing else, Heras adds to the impressive depth of the Astros farm system.  He probably won't show big power in the majors, but if he can handle CF and continue to put his bat on the ball, he could get a chance in the barren Astros' outfield.

SCOUTING REPORTS

Despite today's news not getting a ton of buzz in with the national media, Heras has been on the major league radar for a few years.  Back in 2010, the Hardball Times ranked him as having the fourth best center field arm in minor league baseball.  They also noted that the Oakland A's were scouting the then-eighteen year old:

4. Leonardo Heras (10, -25, .330/.376/.430)

He obtained the numbers above in the Mexican League at 18. He debuted in 2007 at 16. After a pinch runner appearance, he was inserted as a pinch hitter and delivered a base hit; the following day he was in the lineup and went two for five. Walks rarely, but also doesn't strike out a lot. In 2008 he played mostly at second base. He's a right-handed thrower, left-handed batter. The Oakland A's have been following him

Fangraphs profiled Heras in a post about overlooked AAA players (the Mexican League is organized as a AAA league, but unlike the PCL and the International League its teams are not affiliated with major league teams):

Leonardo Heras (.398 OBP, .557 SLG, .413 wOBA, 140 wRC+)

He has speed, power, and age on his side. Only 22 and ranking among the best hitters in the league, Heras is looking elite in a league that is 6 years older than him on average. If this is not the kind of player the ML exists to find, then who is?

The blog, I R Fast, looked at Heras last fall:

His swing probably won't lend him a lot of power, especially the other way. Most of it will most likely be pull on pitches on the inside part of the plate. He is not a big stolen base threat but his speed scores have been good. According to other videos on YouTube, it looks like he has plenty of athleticism and takes good routes to the ball defensively. I am not the first to say this, but I do find him interesting and wonder how much money it would take to pry him away from his Mexican League team

2014 Draft Links: TTF's Initial Top 50

Dan Kirby at through the fences released his initial 2014 top 50 draft prospects.  In no surprise, Carlos Rodon is number one.  Rodon's NC State team Trea Turner comes in at number two.  Jeff Hoffman, who topped Kiley McDaniel's list, is ranked down at number five.

My own two cents is that any list this early, particulary from someone who is not a scout, should be taken with huge grain of salt.  Nevertheless, Kirby's list is worth a look just to get a sense of who is getting first round buzz.

Astros Continue To Add To Their Prospect Portfolio

In the last week the Astros added four prospects, a player-to-be-named-later, and a mid-30s draft pick to an already stacked farm system.  Of the four players the Astros received, three are high upside/high risk A-ball players. The most common metaphor used in analyzing these deals has been to say the Astros got "lottery tickets" due to these prospects' high risks of failure and potential upside.  I get the comparison, but I believe a more apt metaphor is to an investment that fluctuates in value.  With a plethora of assets from Triple-A to the Dominican Prospect League, the Astros have built a monster portfolio of prospects that can't be matched in the league.  While a number of these prospects will surely fail, the depth and diverse nature of the Astros' system makes it a safe bet to payoff in the long term.


The Career Trajectory of Mike Foltynewicz as an Example

Unlike lottery tickets, prospects' value can rise and fall over time.  Most importantly, they also can be traded before they payoff or bust.  For example, think of how current Astros' AA prospect Mike Foltynewicz has fluctuated as a prospect.

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2010	18	APPY	Rk	4.03	12	12	44.2	46	24	20	3	15	39	1.366	9.3	0.6	3.0	7.9
2011	19	SALL	A	4.97	26	26	134.0	149	84	74	10	51	88	1.493	10.0	0.7	3.4	5.9
2012	20	SALL	A	3.14	27	27	152.0	145	65	53	11	62	125	1.362	8.6	0.7	3.7	7.4
2013	21	2 Lgs	AA-A+	2.94	25	17	107.0	92	46	35	9	55	111	1.374	7.7	0.8	4.6	9.3
2013	21	CALL	A+	3.81	7	5	26.0	31	16	11	4	14	29	1.731	10.7	1.4	4.8	10.0
2013	21	TL	AA	2.67	18	12	81.0	61	30	24	5	41	82	1.259	6.8	0.6	4.6	9.1
4 Seasons				3.74	90	82	437.2	432	219	182	33	183	363	1.405	8.9	0.7	3.8	7.5
A (2 seasons)			A	4.00	53	53	286.0	294	149	127	21	113	213	1.423	9.3	0.7	3.6	6.7
AA (1 season)			AA	2.67	18	12	81.0	61	30	24	5	41	82	1.259	6.8	0.6	4.6	9.1
Rk (1 season)			Rk	4.03	12	12	44.2	46	24	20	3	15	39	1.366	9.3	0.6	3.0	7.9
A+ (1 season)			A+	3.81	7	5	26.0	31	16	11	4	14	29	1.731	10.7	1.4	4.8	10.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2013.

Drafted in the middle of the first round in 2010, Folty was considered a legitimate first round talent, but didn't appear on any top 100 lists.  He was pushed to full season A ball at 19 and floundered with a 4.97 era and a 5.91 K/9 rate.  He was still young and had a live arm, with his fastball sitting in the mid-90s, but there wasn't much else positive you could say about his performance.  He was a classic case of a "lottery ticket."

Folty repeated low-A in 2012 to some success.  The era was way down to 3.12, the K per 9 was up to 7.4, but his walks were slight up and his FIP was only 0.34 off what it was the year before.  However, outside of the numbers, the scouting reports were better.  Most notably, while his secondary pitches remained mediocre, the fastball that was 92-94 was now sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s.  Folty had recouped whatever prospect value he had lost the year before, but he still wasn't considered an elite prospect and found himself outside of top 100 lists.

Folty's stuff picked up again this year.  Now the fastball sits an outrageous 96-100.  The stat line has also finally began to resemble the stuff.  He has a 2.94 era over starts in A+ and AA with 9.3 K/9 over the two levels.  The secondary stuff and control still need work, but total package ranks as one of the top 50 prospects in baseball.

His trajectory highlights that prospects aren't a lottery tickets that you scratch off and see if you won.  They can be managed and bought and sold, high or low.  Since he was drafted, Folty's value has dipped, rebounded, and now greatly exceeds his initial value; and we still don't know what he'll ultimately turn into.  Given the Astros' major league situation, it might make sense for them to hold on to everyone in the upper minors, but that won't always be the case.  You might look at someone in A-ball like Hader or DeShields and think they're blocked, but you can also look at them like commodities that can be cashed in or traded before they mature.

The Depth and Diversity of the Astros' System Will Serve Them Well Going Forward

The Astros have complied a deep and diverse group of prospects that should payoff for the major league team in the next few years.  It's amazing to think that the Astros' system, which boasted two relievers in it's 2009 Baseball America top 5, is now the deepest in the game. 

To give some examples, Danry Vasquez, who was ranked 4th in the Tigers system at the time of the Veras trade by mlb.com, is now ranked 19th on the Astros' list.  Hader and Hoes, who were mlb.com's 5th and 7th ranked Orioles prospects, respectively, are now ranked at the 13th and 18th spots on the Astros' list.  Kyle Smith, who was 10th in a good Royal's system, is now ranked 15th for the Astros.  And poor Max Stassi, who's hitting 284/348/573 in his first shot at AA, can't even crack mlb.com's Astros top 20. 

Of course not every prospect will make it.  For many there's a tendency to look at these players with rose colored glasses.  We're told of what these guys will play like in a perfect world, without a clear idea of what chance they have to hit their ceilings or what their most likely outcome will look like. 

The truth is that prospects fail at a higher rate than most imagine, even the elite ones.  A study by RoyalsReview.com found that 69.2% of all Baseball America's top 100 from 1990 to 2003 "busted."  For elite prospects, the numbers were better, but still surprising.  45% of top 10 overall prospects in baseball over the same time period busted.  50% of those ranked 11-20 busted as well.

For fans of a team with all of their hopes in the minor leagues, the numbers are sobering.  However, the Astros' answer has been to amass waves of prospects.  If your future hopes ride on a couple prospects, you're gambling no matter how elite those prospects are.  The Astros, in contrast, can guard against that risk by the sheer numbers of prospects they have. 

If Bundy and Kevin Gausman don't make it for the Orioles, they're not getting much help from their farm for a few years.  In contrast, if Foltynewicz busts for the Astros, it will hurt, but they'll still have Appel, and Cosart, and McCullers, and Wojo, and Hader, and Thurman, and Velasquez, etc.  The Astros don't need all of their prospects to hit their ceilings, so long as some do.

They've been also able to construct a system that is as diverse as it is deep.  They have tooly high risk/high reward types like Springer, Folty, Santana, Teoscar Hernandez, Hader, etc.  They've also supplemented tools with higher floor types like Fontana, Rodgers, Grossman, Thurman, etc.  Of course they also have elite big tool/high floor types like Correa and Appel.

The last few years of following the major league team have been insufferable. My hope is that by constructing a farm system that look more like a mutual fund than a couple a lottery tickets, the Astros can be secure that they'll get a payoff that will make it all worth the wait. 

2014 Draft Links: McDaniel's Top 30 College Prospects and podcast

Fox's Kiley McDaniel recently put up his top 30 college prospects for the 2014 draft ($).  In a bit of a surprise he has ECU's Jeff Hoffman rated ahead of Carlos Rodon.

In his podcast this week, McDaniel says that it's a tossup between Rodon and Hoffman for the current number 1 spot, but that he favors Hoffman because of his projectability.  He describes Hoffman as 6'4 with a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98, a potential plus curve, and an average changeup.

Reactions To The Justin Maxwell For Kyle Smith Trade

Dave Cameron thinks it was an odd move for the Royals, who likely won't make the playoffs:

However, to get Maxwell, the Royals gave up Kyle Smith, who Marc Hulet rated as their #10 prospect heading into the season. Smith has been excellent in high-A Wilmington this year, and is probably not far away from being ready for Double-A. He’s undersized, but the stuff and the results are there, and the Astros are clearly not shy about taking chances on short dudes who can play.

Smith isn’t any kind of elite prospect and might turn out to be nothing in the long run, but this seems like another example of the Royals paying an above market cost for a useful player that won’t actually help them enough for his presence to matter much. With or without Maxwell, the Royals aren’t going to the postseason this year, so at best, he pushes them a little closer to .500. Meanwhile, similar players are going to be outrighted off 40-man rosters this winter, and so while Maxwell is under team control for several more years, the future value he will provide could have been replicated without actually giving up a prospect at the deadline.

It’s not a backbreaker, and perhaps Maxwell will turn into more of a regular contributor than the short half of a job share, but this still seems like a bit of an odd maneuver for the Royals. This is the kind of trade that a contender makes to get their roster ready for postseason play. The Royals would like to be the team making those kinds of moves, but making those kinds of moves doesn’t make you a contender.

John Sickels loves the deal for Houston:

My initial take on this was that the Astros got a great return for Maxwell, but I like Smith more than most analysts do. I've seen him called a Grade C prospect by other reputable sources, and that's apparently the same way that the Royals viewed him. You don't swap a top pitching prospect for a 29-year-old outfielder with a career .222 average and a history of injury.

It is also true that pitchers with Smith's profile often fail to carry forward at the highest levels, so from the Royals point-of-view, they were trading a fungible middling prospect for a guy who can help in the outfield next year. To top it off, I actually like Justin Maxwell and it wouldn't surprise me to see him be a (really) late bloomer. However, it would seem to me that a guy like Maxwell should be acquirable without having to give up a prospect like Smith,who has performed well at a young age.

Royal Revival thinks that Maxwell's platoon splits will make him useful piece in Kansas City's outfield mix:

This seems like a pretty good divide. Again this exercise was purely to get a feel for how the playing time could be divided up. Obviously, if the Royals don't play Gordon everyday there could be more playing time for others. This might even help to optimize the offense. I just don't expect Gordon's playing time to dip due to this acquisition and that's probably a good thing. My biggest takeaway is that we all have automatically assumed that Lough is the obvious choice to see a dip in playing time, but this might not be the best case scenario.

Reactions to the Bud Norris to Baltimore Trade

Enos Sarris of Fangraphs thinks it was an exchange of flawed pieces:

The only mitigating factor is that the cost wasn’t high. LJ Hoes was the fith-best prospect on Marc Hulet’s Orioles list going into the season, but he’s played in the corner outfield this year, and since he doesn’t have any power, and even his work on the basepaths is problematic, he just doesn’t fit the plate profile to be a major league right fielder. So he’s on the move again.

The Astros will also get a second prospect — Josh Hader has been discussed, but his medicals may or may not require a substitution — and that can always change things, and the value of the pick they receive is also hard to suss out completely, but continues the asset collection plan that Jeff Luhnow and his team have had in place.

John Sickels breaks down the prospects headed to Houston:

Hader is listed at 6-3, 160, but has gained size and strength since signing, boosting his fastball from 84-87 in high school to 88-94 in pro ball. His changeup is ahead of his slider and curveball at this point, but he's deceptive and he's made a huge amount of progress in the last 13 months. He still needs to sharpen up his command, but he's got a shot at being a mid-rotation starter if he refines his breaking pitches and control.. Even if that doesn't work out, his ability to cross-up lefties could be useful in the pen; he's held them to a .138 average this year...

Like Hader, Hoes was a local kid for the Orioles, drafted in the third round in 2008 from high school in Washington, DC. He's made slow but steady progress through the farm system, reaching Triple-A and the majors briefly last year and again this year. In 2012 he hit .300/.374/.397 for Norfolk; this year he's at .304/.406/.403. He is 0-for-4 in three major league contests.

Keith Law writes that the Astros got less than expected for Norris ($):

The Orioles' acquisition of Bud Norris gives them needed starting pitching depth, especially with Jason Hammel going on the DL on Wednesday, but also could help bolster their right-handed relief corps, if everyone comes back healthy and available. The Astros get a 4A position player, who gets on base, and a lottery-ticket lefty with arm strength but a long ways to go.