Astros Continue To Add To Their Prospect Portfolio

In the last week the Astros added four prospects, a player-to-be-named-later, and a mid-30s draft pick to an already stacked farm system.  Of the four players the Astros received, three are high upside/high risk A-ball players. The most common metaphor used in analyzing these deals has been to say the Astros got "lottery tickets" due to these prospects' high risks of failure and potential upside.  I get the comparison, but I believe a more apt metaphor is to an investment that fluctuates in value.  With a plethora of assets from Triple-A to the Dominican Prospect League, the Astros have built a monster portfolio of prospects that can't be matched in the league.  While a number of these prospects will surely fail, the depth and diverse nature of the Astros' system makes it a safe bet to payoff in the long term.


The Career Trajectory of Mike Foltynewicz as an Example

Unlike lottery tickets, prospects' value can rise and fall over time.  Most importantly, they also can be traded before they payoff or bust.  For example, think of how current Astros' AA prospect Mike Foltynewicz has fluctuated as a prospect.

Year	Age	Lg	Lev	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2010	18	APPY	Rk	4.03	12	12	44.2	46	24	20	3	15	39	1.366	9.3	0.6	3.0	7.9
2011	19	SALL	A	4.97	26	26	134.0	149	84	74	10	51	88	1.493	10.0	0.7	3.4	5.9
2012	20	SALL	A	3.14	27	27	152.0	145	65	53	11	62	125	1.362	8.6	0.7	3.7	7.4
2013	21	2 Lgs	AA-A+	2.94	25	17	107.0	92	46	35	9	55	111	1.374	7.7	0.8	4.6	9.3
2013	21	CALL	A+	3.81	7	5	26.0	31	16	11	4	14	29	1.731	10.7	1.4	4.8	10.0
2013	21	TL	AA	2.67	18	12	81.0	61	30	24	5	41	82	1.259	6.8	0.6	4.6	9.1
4 Seasons				3.74	90	82	437.2	432	219	182	33	183	363	1.405	8.9	0.7	3.8	7.5
A (2 seasons)			A	4.00	53	53	286.0	294	149	127	21	113	213	1.423	9.3	0.7	3.6	6.7
AA (1 season)			AA	2.67	18	12	81.0	61	30	24	5	41	82	1.259	6.8	0.6	4.6	9.1
Rk (1 season)			Rk	4.03	12	12	44.2	46	24	20	3	15	39	1.366	9.3	0.6	3.0	7.9
A+ (1 season)			A+	3.81	7	5	26.0	31	16	11	4	14	29	1.731	10.7	1.4	4.8	10.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/1/2013.

Drafted in the middle of the first round in 2010, Folty was considered a legitimate first round talent, but didn't appear on any top 100 lists.  He was pushed to full season A ball at 19 and floundered with a 4.97 era and a 5.91 K/9 rate.  He was still young and had a live arm, with his fastball sitting in the mid-90s, but there wasn't much else positive you could say about his performance.  He was a classic case of a "lottery ticket."

Folty repeated low-A in 2012 to some success.  The era was way down to 3.12, the K per 9 was up to 7.4, but his walks were slight up and his FIP was only 0.34 off what it was the year before.  However, outside of the numbers, the scouting reports were better.  Most notably, while his secondary pitches remained mediocre, the fastball that was 92-94 was now sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s.  Folty had recouped whatever prospect value he had lost the year before, but he still wasn't considered an elite prospect and found himself outside of top 100 lists.

Folty's stuff picked up again this year.  Now the fastball sits an outrageous 96-100.  The stat line has also finally began to resemble the stuff.  He has a 2.94 era over starts in A+ and AA with 9.3 K/9 over the two levels.  The secondary stuff and control still need work, but total package ranks as one of the top 50 prospects in baseball.

His trajectory highlights that prospects aren't a lottery tickets that you scratch off and see if you won.  They can be managed and bought and sold, high or low.  Since he was drafted, Folty's value has dipped, rebounded, and now greatly exceeds his initial value; and we still don't know what he'll ultimately turn into.  Given the Astros' major league situation, it might make sense for them to hold on to everyone in the upper minors, but that won't always be the case.  You might look at someone in A-ball like Hader or DeShields and think they're blocked, but you can also look at them like commodities that can be cashed in or traded before they mature.

The Depth and Diversity of the Astros' System Will Serve Them Well Going Forward

The Astros have complied a deep and diverse group of prospects that should payoff for the major league team in the next few years.  It's amazing to think that the Astros' system, which boasted two relievers in it's 2009 Baseball America top 5, is now the deepest in the game. 

To give some examples, Danry Vasquez, who was ranked 4th in the Tigers system at the time of the Veras trade by mlb.com, is now ranked 19th on the Astros' list.  Hader and Hoes, who were mlb.com's 5th and 7th ranked Orioles prospects, respectively, are now ranked at the 13th and 18th spots on the Astros' list.  Kyle Smith, who was 10th in a good Royal's system, is now ranked 15th for the Astros.  And poor Max Stassi, who's hitting 284/348/573 in his first shot at AA, can't even crack mlb.com's Astros top 20. 

Of course not every prospect will make it.  For many there's a tendency to look at these players with rose colored glasses.  We're told of what these guys will play like in a perfect world, without a clear idea of what chance they have to hit their ceilings or what their most likely outcome will look like. 

The truth is that prospects fail at a higher rate than most imagine, even the elite ones.  A study by RoyalsReview.com found that 69.2% of all Baseball America's top 100 from 1990 to 2003 "busted."  For elite prospects, the numbers were better, but still surprising.  45% of top 10 overall prospects in baseball over the same time period busted.  50% of those ranked 11-20 busted as well.

For fans of a team with all of their hopes in the minor leagues, the numbers are sobering.  However, the Astros' answer has been to amass waves of prospects.  If your future hopes ride on a couple prospects, you're gambling no matter how elite those prospects are.  The Astros, in contrast, can guard against that risk by the sheer numbers of prospects they have. 

If Bundy and Kevin Gausman don't make it for the Orioles, they're not getting much help from their farm for a few years.  In contrast, if Foltynewicz busts for the Astros, it will hurt, but they'll still have Appel, and Cosart, and McCullers, and Wojo, and Hader, and Thurman, and Velasquez, etc.  The Astros don't need all of their prospects to hit their ceilings, so long as some do.

They've been also able to construct a system that is as diverse as it is deep.  They have tooly high risk/high reward types like Springer, Folty, Santana, Teoscar Hernandez, Hader, etc.  They've also supplemented tools with higher floor types like Fontana, Rodgers, Grossman, Thurman, etc.  Of course they also have elite big tool/high floor types like Correa and Appel.

The last few years of following the major league team have been insufferable. My hope is that by constructing a farm system that look more like a mutual fund than a couple a lottery tickets, the Astros can be secure that they'll get a payoff that will make it all worth the wait.